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Unlike Greenland, most of the AIS margin terminates in the ocean. The AIS also contains almost eight times more glacial ice above flotation than Greenland, and nearly half of this ice is marine-based, that is, grounded on bedrock hundreds of metres (or more) below sea level (Figure 4.7; Fretwell et al., 2013448). In places where the subglacial bedrock slopes downward away from the coast (reverse-sloped), the marine-based glacial ice is susceptible to dynamical instabilities (Weertman, 1974449; Schoof, 2007b450; Pollard et al., 2015451) that can contribute rapid ice loss (Cross-Chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). The instabilities can be triggered by the loss or thinning of ice shelves through changes in the surrounding ocean and increased sub-ice melt rates and changes in the overlying atmosphere affecting SMB and surface meltwater production. Much progress has been made since AR5 in the understanding of these processes, but their representation in continental-scale models continue to be heavily parameterised in most cases. Complex interactions between the ice sheet, ocean, atmosphere and underlying bedrock also remain difficult to simulate collectively.
Ritz et al. (2015)512 used a hybrid physical-statistical modelling approach, whereby the timing of MISI onset is determined statistically rather than physically. They estimated probabilities of MISI onset in eleven different sectors around the ice sheet margin based on observations of continent-wide retreat and thinning over the last few decades, and expected future climate change following an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario only. In places where MISI is projected to begin, the persistence and rate of grounding-line retreat is parameterised as a function of the local bedrock topography (slope), ice thickness at grounding lines following Schoof (2007b), and basal friction. This study represents a statistically rigorous approach in which model parameters are based on a synthesis of observations and projected surface and sub-shelf forcing, rather than coming directly from climate and ocean models. However, the model calibrations rely on recent observations, which may not provide adequate guidance under warmer future conditions.
Following earlier IPCC Reports Protection, Retreat and Accommodation responses to SLR and its impacts are distinguished between (Nicholls et al., 2007; Wong et al., 2014), and Advance is added as a fourth type of response that consists in building seaward and upward (Box 4.3). Advance had not received much attention in the climate change literature but plays an important role in coastal development across the world (e.g., Institution of Civil Engineers, 2010; Lee, 2014; Donchyts et al., 2016). The broader term response is used here instead of adaptation, because some responses such as retreat may or may not be meaningfully considered to be adaptation (Hinkel et al., 2018). Responses that address the causes of climate change, such as mitigating GHGs or geoengineering temperature and sea level responses to emissions fall beyond the scope of this chapter, and are addressed in SR1.5 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). In coastal areas where anthropogenic subsidence contributes to relative SLR, another important type of response is the management of subsidence by, for instance, restricting ground fluid abstraction. Although this type of measure is considered in the risk assessment developed in Section 4.3.4, it is not assessed here due to a lack of space. 2b1af7f3a8